PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.     

Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts

This paper considers a Lagrange multiplier (LM) based panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both the intercepts and slopes of a series. We note that many popular time series variables are likely to exhibit changing means and/or trends over time. Given that the usual tests will depend on the nuisance parameters indicating the locations of the trend breaks, we adopt a transformation procedure that makes our new panel unit root tests invariant to the nuisance parameters. To illustrate the importance of the power gain provided by our test, we examine the convergence hypothesis using relative ratios of per capita health care expenditures in 20 OECD countries. Our results provide evidence that the convergence hypothesis is supported.     

Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break

This study investigates long-run convergence of per capita output across ten Asian countries over 1960 to 2014 by taking advantage of possible economic growth determinants, which may be responsible for setting Asian countries on a long-term steady-state growth path. We simultaneously examine the presence of output convergence in the region, as well as the statistical significance of these economic growth determinants, by using a unit root test with a stationary covariate. In addition, the study allows for the presence of endogenous structural changes in the time series under investigation in order to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential economic events, such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises in 1997–98 and 2008–09. The limiting distribution of the covariate unit root test that permits structural breaks is also derived. The results show significant evidence to support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, asymptotically absolute convergence holds among Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In addition, Thailand shows a convergence tendency in terms of asymptotically relative convergence toward Singapore. Malaysia, Indonesia, and India also turn out to converge toward Hong Kong in an asymptotically relative sense. Certain potential growth determinants, such as the trade/GDP ratio, inflation rate, government expenditure/GDP ratio, and quality of human capital, may help these countries achieve and maintain the long-run convergence process toward the reference countries in the region.     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear,asymmetric panel-data evidence

This paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.     

双平行线阵的快速一维DOA估计

针对传统子空间算法需要进行特征值分解或奇异值分解等复杂计算的问题，提出一种双平行线阵（Double Parallel Linear Array,DPLA）的快速一维波达方向（Direction of Arrival，DOA）估计算法。算法通过处理互协方差矩阵的第一列元素构造出等效的噪声子空间，再通过求根MUSIC（Multiple Signal Classification）算法得到DOA估计，有效避开了特征值分解或奇异值分解，降低了计算复杂度，提高了运算速度。仿真结果表明，该算法在提高了估计精度的同时减少了估计时间。     

Brexit: Tracking and disentangling the sentiment towards leaving the EU

On 23 June, 2016, the UK held a referendum to decide whether to stay in the European Union or leave. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this referendum had major consequences for public policy, investment decisions, and currency markets. We discuss some of the subtleties involved in smoothing and disentangling poll data in light of the problem of tracking the dynamics of the intention to Brexit, and propose a multivariate singular spectrum analysis method that produces trendlines on the unit simplex. The trendline yield via multivariate singular spectrum analysis is shown to resemble that of local polynomial smoothing, and singular spectrum analysis presents the nice feature of disentangling the dynamics directly into components that can be interpreted as changes in public opinion or sampling error. The merits and disadvantages of some different approaches for obtaining smooth trendlines on the unit simplex are contrasted, in terms of both local polynomial smoothing and multivariate singular spectrum analysis.     

事业单位国有资产管理的制度设计、治理机制及其他

对事业单位国有资产管理进行改革已越来越迫切.作为规范性的事业单位的主体社会公益型组织,评价其资产管理工作的好坏不是以它们所创造的货币收益多少为指标,而必须研究设计出一整套多元的科学指标体系;应在医院、学校等事业单位建立理事会或董事会治理结构;重建成本核算的财务会计制度.     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。